We got what we were looking for in yesterday’s analysis: A breakout in the EUR/USD. The euro broke out of its narrow trading range and surpassed the 1.1445-barrier. Our long entry has thus proved a success. We are now looking for additional upside in this pair and look at higher targets at 1.15, 1.1530 and 1.1580. With the EUR/USD gradually approaching overbought territory we also anticipate pullbacks which may drive the euro back toward 1.1415. With the euro remaining above 1.1460 however, there is no cause for concern for euro bulls, at least for a while.
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen gives testimony today and tomorrow with market participants looking for guidance on when the Fed could start shrinking its balance sheet. Ms. Yellen is due to start her prepared remarks at 12:30 UTC followed by Q&A at 14:00 UTC. Yellen’s testimony is the prime monetary policy event for dollar traders and so we expect higher volatility in all USD crosses.
The British pound depreciated against the U.S. dollar Tuesday and fell toward a low of 1.2830. The catalyst for the decline was a speech by Bank of England Deputy Governor Broadbent who refrained from commenting on interest rates. Broadbent instead warned of Brexit risks and hence the pound weakened as the market has hoped that there would be anything hawkish in his speech.
From a technical perspective, we now expect the GBP/USD to trade with a tailwind since the pair refrained from a break of its recent downtrend channel. Based on that channel, it could be time for a pullback and hence upcoming bullish momentum toward 1.2920. Let us be surprised.
The U.K. Labor Market report is scheduled for release at 8:30 UTC and could have an impact on the pound. Signs of stronger job growth may encourage the BoE to start normalizing monetary policy. Stronger job/wage growth figures would thus have a positive impact on the pound sterling.
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